The winds of change are sweeping across the world. The recent France-UK nuclear cooperation declaration stands as a bold testament to Europe, a continent rethinking its security future, as well as a new geopolitical balance for the world.
Signed in July 2025, the Northwood Declaration marks a historic shift, with France and the UK coordinating their independent nuclear deterrents to address growing threats. This move is not merely a reaction but a strategic move, driven by a complex web of global pressures. As European leaders shoulder the burden of their continent’s safety, the declaration reshapes the global security landscape in profound ways.
The catalyst for this alliance lies in the shifting priorities of the United States under the Trump administration. This was first emerged when Trump came to the power for the first time and gave clear messages to the US public, as well as to the world (on this issue, I wrote an op-ed article for Daily Sabah in 2018 mentioning the threats Europe and the world are facing today). With a focus only on American interests, the U.S. has signalled a retreat from its traditional role as Europe’s nuclear umbrella. This disengagement makes sense when viewed against the backdrop of Russia’s persistent threats to European security, ranging from hybrid warfare to nuclear posturing over Ukraine. The realisation that Washington may no longer bear the full weight of NATO’s defence commitments has forced France and the UK to step up. Their declaration sends a clear message: any extreme threat to Europe will provoke a unified response, reducing reliance on a potentially unreliable ally.
Yet, this is not just about filling a void left by the U.S. The France-UK partnership also opens doors to new opportunities. By aligning their nuclear capabilities, these nations aim to position Europe as an independent actor on the global stage. This autonomy allows them to seek partnerships beyond the Atlantic, perhaps with emerging powers in Asia or Africa, strengthening their diplomatic leverage.
In a world where alliances are fluid, this flexibility could prove decisive in navigating future crises. The global security landscape, however, is far from stable. We are living through a chaotic period marked by rapid technological advancement and the rise of unexpected threats. On the one hand, innovations like AI-driven defence systems and hyper-sonic missiles offer new tools to deter aggression. On the other, these same technologies amplify risks, enabling cyber-attacks and unconventional warfare that challenge traditional security frameworks.
Compounding this, new actors, once considered minor players, are emerging as powerful forces. Countries or non-state groups that posed little risk a decade ago now wield influence, from cyber militias to resource-rich nations flexing their muscles. This volatile mix has pushed European leaders to prioritise the continent’s security, irrespective of external actors’ actions. The Northwood Declaration reflects this urgency. By coordinating their arsenals, France with its 290 warheads and the UK with its operationally independent deterrent, the two nations enhance Europe’s resilience. This is not about matching the U.S.’s vast nuclear stockpile but about creating a credible, complementary deterrent tailored to Europe’s needs. The focus is on defending vital interests, ensuring that any adversary, be it Russia or an emerging threat, faces a robust response.
Critics might argue this move risks escalating tensions, particularly with Russia, which has relied on nuclear coercion to intimidate its neighbours. Yet, it signals strength without provoking an immediate arms race. Moreover, it fosters a European strategic culture, encouraging broader dialogue on security that could involve Germany (in fact, Germany has shown its interest to build a European defence system independent from the US), Poland, and others, despite their current hesitations. For the global security landscape, the implications are far-reaching.
This alliance could also inspire other regions to bolster regional defences, reducing dependence on superpowers and challenges the unipolar dominance of the past, ushering in a multipolar world where Europe asserts its voice. Yet, success hinges on public support and sustained political will. European citizens should understand that nuclear deterrence, while a last resort, underpins peace in an increasingly unstable world. As we look ahead, the France-UK nuclear cooperation is a serious call for Europe to take charge of its destiny. It addresses immediate threats from Russia, adapts to a technologically chaotic era, and prepares for the rise of new actors. The question remains: will other nations follow suit, or will this remain a uniquely European initiative? Only time will tell, but the Northwood Declaration has undeniably shifted the geopolitical chessboard.
Bayram Aliyev 
